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2 . 2021

Artificial intelligence algorithms for dialysis patients' therapies efficiency evaluation


The aim of the research is to form methodological base of medical information system development, that would be able to examine the life quality problems of dialysis patients as a whole by using machine learning algorithms.

A specific practical objective is to develop an intelligent decision support system for prescribing personalized medical therapies for patients with chronic renal failure, as well as to evaluate the efficiency of the treatment strategy in terms of the validity of prescribing for phosphorus-calcium metabolism (PCM) restoration therapy and for antianemic therapy (AAT) based on patient's profile. By patient's profile we understand the combination of socio-demographic characteristics of the patient, functional examinations, laboratory and clinical studies, monitored in dynamics, the timeline of pharmacological prescriptions in the "drug-dose-route of administration" link.

Material and methods. The model of therapies efficiency had been developed using the funnel principle: on the first stage of the model therapy classifies as "effective" one or "non-effective", then in the case of "non-effective" therapy classifies either as "insufficient" or as "excessive". In the research algorithms of gradient boosting and random forest were implemented on both stages. To balance volume of raw data recovery and to get reliable results while having a wide variety of features sampling technics as SMOTE and random oversampling were used. As features for classification models fitting were used such values as: gender and age of patient, body mass index, presence of hepatitis B, hepatitis C, HIV infection, treatment period, presence or absence of medical treatment prescription in previous periods with medicament indication, its dosage, medication frequency and route of administration, laboratory blood indicators at the moment of therapy prescription (such as hemoglobin, ferritin, potassium, sodium, hematocrit, phosphorus, iron, parathormone, calcium, percentage of transferrin iron saturation, etc.), their values at previous and pre previous months, duration of dialysis treatment, dialysis procedure efficiency indicator (monthly average KT/V ratio). The data that was used to fit models is represented by 9000 records labeled by efficiency class for both AAT and for PCM restoration therapy. Given data was divided on test and train data in 70 on 30 ratio.

Results. On test data the following quality metrics were received for therapy efficiency estimation using fitted models: for AAT efficiency - sensitivity -98.9%, specificity - 98.2%; for PCM restoration efficiency - sensitivity - 98.4%, specificity - 98.3%; for AAT insufficiency/excessiveness - sensitivity - 98.4%, specificity - 97.7%; for PCM restoration therapy insufficiency/excessiveness -sensitivity - 99.5%, specificity - 100%.

Conclusion. The implementation of the proposed algorithms efficiency estimation for AAT and PCM recovery therapy system allows to use given means for these types of therapy as efficiently as possible.

Funding. The work, the results of which are presented in the article, was partially supported by the grant “Development of an intelligent decision support system for the appointment of personalized dialysis and drug therapy for patients with chronic renal failure using artificial intelligence algorithms” (grant of the Innovation Research and Development Assistance Fund, 2019-2020, No. AAAAA-A20-120011490126-5).

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Contribution. Statement of the research problem - Chernenko O.V.; development of intelligent algorithms -Lakman L.A.; study design - Shkel O.A.; assessment of the predictive quality of intelligent algorithms - Padu-kova A.A.; collection and primary analysis of data - Nafikov Sh.R.; software development for intelligent algorithms - Shabanova K.I.

For citation: Chernenko O.V., Lakman L.A., Shkel O.A., Padukova A.A., Nafikov Sh.R., Shabanova K.I. Artificial intelligence algorithms for dialysis patients' therapies efficiency evaluation. ORGZDRAV: novosti, mneniya, obuchenie. Vestnik VSHOUZ [HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT: News, Views, Education. Bulletin of VSHOUZ]. 2021; 7 (2): 103-15. DOI: (in Russian)


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Guzel E. Ulumbekova
MD, MBA from Harvard University (Boston, USA), Head of the Graduate School of Healthcare Organization and Management (VSHOUZ), Associate Professor of the Department of Public Health and Health Care, Health Economics, Faculty of Pediatric of the Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University
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