Scientific substantiation of the conditions for increasing the birth rate in the Russian Federation in the period from 2022 to 2030
President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin has set a national goal by 2030 – to achieve sustainable growth in the country’s population. This requires an increase in the birth rate and a decrease in the death rate of the population. According to these indicators, an emergency situation has developed in the Russian Federation over the past two years. For 2020 and 2021 The population of the country decreased by 1.2 million people, which is directly related to the supermortality of the population and the reduction in the birth rate. Based on a quantitative assessment of the influence of the main factors on the fertility rate, forecasts were made for the dynamics of this indicator for the medium term (until 2030) under three scenario conditions. It is shown that even under the most favorable conditions, i.e. with an increase in the average per capita income of the population by 4% annually, the fertility rate will decrease to 1.44 by 2026. And only starting from 2027 will there be a moderate increase in this indicator. The results obtained indicate that the national goal of the Russian Federation to increase the fertility rate by 2024 to 1.7 children per woman, with the existing measures to support families and stimulate the birth rate, will not be achieved. This requires additional extraordinary measures. The paper proposes the following additional measures for the Russian Federation, which will increase the number of births by approximately 250–300 thousand children annually: 1) doubling the amount of maternity capital for the birth of second and subsequent children, 2) financial support for families with two or more children under the age of 7 years in the amount of 1/2 of the average wage in the region, regardless of the status of need; 3) implementation of mass programs for the protection of the reproductive health of citizens; 4) creation of favorable and friendly conditions for the development of children (places in preschool institutions, extended groups, free circles, affordable medical and preventive care). All these measures will require an additional at least 1.7 trillion rubles, annually, which, taking into account the funds already spent (1.8 trillion rubles), will amount to 3.3% of GDP. This is close to how much developed countries spend on such measures, which managed to achieve a fertility rate of 1.7–2.
Keywords:birth rate; demographic policy; total fertility rate; maternity capital; family policy expenditures; birth rate forecasts
Funding. The study had no sponsor support.
Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Contribution. Scientific management of research; concept and design of the study, analysis of the results, abstract, conclusions and suggestions, writing and editing the text – Ulumbekova G.E.; subsections of the article “Introduction”, “Quantitative assessment of factors affecting the birth rate in the regions of the Russian Federation, and fertility forecasts in the Russian Federation until 2030”, “Analysis of the experience of developed countries that have achieved success in increasing the birth rate and comparing the costs of stimulating the birth of children and demographic policy in the Russian Federation and developed countries” – Ginoyan A.B.; subsections of the article “Determining the measures necessary to increase the birth rate in the Russian Federation in the period from 2022 to 2030 and assessing the necessary financial resources for their implementation”, “Comparison of the costs of measures to stimulate the birth rate and support families with children in the Russian Federation and developed countries”, “Key regulatory documents and measures being implemented today in the Russian Federation to stimulate the birth rate and support families with children” – Khudova I.Yu.
For citation: Ulumbekova G.E., Ginoyan A.B., Khudova I.Yu. Scientific substantiation of the conditions for increasing the birth rate in the Russian Federation in the period from 2022 to 2030. ORGZDRAV: novosti, mneniya, obuchenie. Vestnik VSHOUZ [HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT: News, Views, Education. Bulletin of VSHOUZ]. 2022; 8 (1): 4–22. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33029/2411-8621-2022-8-1-4-22 (in Russian)
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