The main trends in the incidence of the child population, Nizhny Novgorod region in 2017–2021

• Svetlana S. Karpova
• Yuliana V. Baturina

Abstract

One of the most important areas of Russian state policy is to overcome the demographic crisis. The successful solution of this issue is determined by the state of health of the child population. However, many indicators of the health of the child population aged 0–14 remain extremely alarming. In the Russian Federation, it is in this age group that about 40 million cases of newly diagnosed diseases are registered annually. Many studies show a change in the incidence pattern in this age group, expressed in an increase in the number of chronic and combined forms of diseases. The quality and accessibility of medical care depend primarily on the provision of healthcare facilities with medical workers, their qualifications and professional level. An effective personnel policy is an important component of the successful functioning of the healthcare industry, and given the global personnel crisis in healthcare, the issue of staffing has recently become of particular importance. In the Nizhny Novgorod region, a number of programs are being implemented that provide for measures to improve the personnel situation in the health care of the region, in particular, the creation of conditions for securing medical workers in the children’s health care industry and the formation of a personnel reserve. At the same time, it is extremely important to assess the impact of these measures on the levels of morbidity in children.

Aim of the study – to assess the impact of the provision of the population with pediatricians on the levels and dynamics of the incidence of children aged 0 to 14 years in the Nizhny Novgorod region over a five-year period (2017–2021).

Material and methods. The analysis of official statistical data for a five-year period (2017–2021) was carried out. For this, information was copied from the statistical materials of Rosstat and the State Budgetary Institution of Healthcare of the Nizhny Novgorod region “Medical Information and Analytical Center” (MIAC). Statistical data processing was carried out using the SPSS Statistics 26 program. A comparative analysis of regional indicators with indicators for the Russian Federation was carried out. To determine the nature of the distribution, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov criterion was used. The levels of general and primary childhood morbidity, staffing in the study region and the Russian Federation were analyzed, for which time series of these indicators were compiled and the calculation of visibility indicators was performed. Correlation analysis was carried out using Spearman’s nonparametric correlation coefficient, the strength of the connection was estimated using the Chaddock scale.

Results. The correlation analysis of a continuous sample of these indicators of general childhood morbidity and staffing of cities and districts of the Nizhny Novgorod region from 2017 to 2021 showed a weak relationship between these values. The correlation index for the five-year period as a whole was 0.26, ranging from 0.15 in the analysis of the relationship of indicators in 2019 to 0.38 in 2020. Similarly, low correlation values were revealed in the analysis of the relationship between the indicators of primary morbidity in children aged 0 to 14 years and the provision of the pediatric population with pediatricians in the Nizhny Novgorod region. The correlation indicator for the period from 2017 to 2021 was 0.24, demonstrating a weak relationship between the criterion (dependent) variable and predictor variables.

Keywords:children 0–14 years old; primary morbidity; general morbidity; availability of pediatricians; Nizhny Novgorod region

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